US Oil Production Projection, 2018-5-9

Is the BLS Incompetent or a Manipulator?

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2018-3. xlsx

I've been monitoring the inaccuracy and volatility in the monthly BLS jobs reports for several years now.  It is truly amazing to see how wild and inaccurate the monthly reporting of jobs gains is.  Hiring is not raging at a 313k/month pace as the most recent report claims.  200k/month is a lot closer to accurate.  About the only way to get a meaningful number from the BLS monthly jobs gain reported, is to average 12 months of data, and then the number tracks pretty close to reality.

The above chart makes it pretty clear that up to about December 2014 the monthly BLS report tended to over report jobs gains.  But since January 2015 it has been under reporting.  That is up to the last 2 months when it appears the BLS is firmly in the over reporting of jobs business again  This can be seen by the blue and orange bars tracking pretty close in most months up to December 2014, with the orange bars periodically spiking over the blue.  But since January 2015 it the orange more typically track well below the blue.  Summing the difference between the orange and blue bars proves this as well.

Notice the massive spike in January 2017 and a corresponding spike in the most recent report, February 2018. Also notice that the official jobs gain numbers came in pathetically low the following 4 months after the blowout January 2017 report.  And somehow this massive spike in employment comes with a drastic slowing in wage growth.  Really?  A massive 50% spike in hiring over where we've been tracking but somehow wages fall?

Let's also look at the latest revisions.  January 2018 was revised up about 39k to 239k from 200k, however the raw data, the non seasonally adjusted data set, actually shows a 1000 decrease for January.  December was also revised up significantly and the raw data shows about a 28k gain for December 2017.   But somehow the official numbers boost January and December by a combined 54k.

I pulled this from a MarketWatch article.   “If you had tried to concoct an event that would be good news for the economy and good for the markets, you would come up with the kind of jobs report that we got today: solid headlight number with only moderate wage growth,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

I think "concoct an event" sums it up.  You think this might be designed to prop up stocks and bonds after a nasty February dip and a volatility surge?  I've seen this repeatedly over the last few years, the markets flounder and the BLS comes riding in with the exact report needed for support, whether it be a big number to reverse fears over slower hiring or a weak report to quell fears over the Fed backing out and slowing interest rate hikes.  Now we get a massive gain with slowing wage gains, best of both worlds.

To be fair it looks like there might be an improvement in hiring rate to 195k/month over the last 4 months from about 185k, about a 5% improvement.  But that is nowhere close to what the 313k number implies.

Home Selling Price vs. Household Income

Oil Crash Brewing, Swap Dealers Think So

Is an oil crash brewing?  The swap dealers certainly think so.  They are sitting on 900k, as of 1/16/2018, short contracts in WTI, with a net short of 750k.  Yup, they are betting 750 million barrels that the price is going to drop.  Do you really want to bet against these big bankers?

How to know you are in a market bubble 101

Car Companies
Ford
Revenue:  $160B
Earnings:  $6.24B
PE 7.3
Value:  $45.5B and falling fast

GM
Revenue:  $160B
Earnings:  $8.86B
PE 6.98
Value:  $61.8B and falling fast

Tesla
Revenue: < $12B
Earnings:  lost $300 million
PE:  Not applicable, no profit
Value:  $58.4B and rising

So Tesla is treated like it is already equivalent to Ford or GM.

Netflix

Revenue: <$13B
Earnings:  $500 million
PE:  200
Value:  $117B and rising fast

And why own Ford AND GM combined and make $15B when you can own Netflix instead and make 1/30 as much.  Anyone see a problem with the market rushing to buy Netflix and dumping Ford and GM.

Retailers/Distributors
Walmart
Revenue: $485B
Earnings:  $17B
PE:  28
Value:  $318B and rising
Umm, the largest grocery/low end retail store in the world now has a PE of 28.  20 years to break even.  Yah, that ends well.

Target
Revenue: $70B
Earnings:  $2.5B
PE:  16
Value:  $41.3B and rising
Umm, the largest grocery/low end retail store in the world now has a PE of 28.  20 years to break even.  Yah, that ends well.

Macys
Revenue: $26B
Earnings:  $619 million
PE:  12
Value:  $8.1B and falling

Amazon
Revenue: $100B
Earnings:  <$2B
PE:  342
Value:  $660B and rising fast

So you can buy both Target and Macy's and make $1 billion more than Amazon, but instead everyone wants to buy Amazon for 7X as much.  And why buy Walmart for 2/3 the cost of Amazon and make $17B when you can have Amazon instead and make less the $2B.

Hidden debt bomb in the Federal Budget.

This is what happens if interest rates go back to 2007 levels.  Issued treasuries has tripled in 9 years.

Mnuchin's comment about not caring about the dollar strength and knowing that a weak dollar will likely trigger a surge in inflation and interest rates, triggered me to do a thought experiment on what if US Treasury rates go back to 2007 levels. In 2007 the effective interest rate on the debt was 8.7%. It is interesting to note that interest on the debt in 2007 is about equal to the interest on the debt in 2017, even though Treasuries issued has nearly tripled.

In 2007 $5 trillion in Treasuries were issued, now almost $15 trillion have been issued. If interest rates were to go up to 2007 levels, interest on the debt would be $1.2 trillion from a measly $460 billion now, blowing up federal spending by 25%.

This here is the bubble/boogeyman nobody wants to talk about. It's especially scary since we are on pace to issue about $1 trillion in new debt in 2018, and possibly that much and more every year there after for the foreseeable future.

If you ever want to discuss where the money goes, and where to cut for the biggest affect. These charts will come in handy. I tried to make the actual 2017 pie a little smaller than the what if 2017 chart to emphasize the blow up in total spending.

DOW Jones BUBBLES

Where are the corporate income tax payments?

Corporate income tax payments comparison, Where are the Corporate Income Tax Payments

Monthly Comparison of Corporate Income Taxes Paid  (In $Millions)  Orange highlight indicates monthly payments lower than same period in prior year, green highlight indicates greater payment.

See April 2017 comparison blogpost.

For most of 2017 we were told both from the financial media and corporate quarterly earnings reports that US corporations were having a blowout earnings year.  Earnings were supposedly up well over 10% year over year.  Well if that was the case, Where are the corporate income tax payments to match?  

It's pretty clear now no matter how it's sliced, fiscal YoY or calendar YoY, corporate income tax payments were down which implies earnings were as well.  I actually expect January payments to be down as well, and may even show an overall refund.  Why?  Because with the corporate tax cut, companies will do everything possible to push earnings into 2018 instead of 2017 to take advantage of the lower tax rate.  I suspect a lot of the bonuses paid in December were done in an effort to pull 2018 wage expense into 2017 and a there will be matching delays/lowering of raises for 2018 using the bonus as a justification.

We all better hope that the corporate tax cut works and/or the soft income tax payments were simply due to financial engineering by companies that were betting on the tax cut happening.  If not with this sky high stock market, and central banks unwinding their balance sheets, LOOK OUT because stops could IMPLODE!!!!

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2017-8. xlsx

Here is my monthly update on the jobs report.  Again we see the monthly gain is exaggerated by about 15%, most likely to make up for the wild inaccuracies of March and May.

Not close to 222k jobs added in June 2017

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2017-7. xlsx

I've been monitoring the inaccuracy and volatility in the monthly BLS jobs reports for several years now.  It is truly amazing to see how wild and inaccurate the monthly reporting of jobs gains is.  Hiring is not raging at a 222k/month pace as the most recent report claims.  184k/month is a lot closer to accurate.  About the only way to get a meaningful number from the BLS monthly jobs gain reported, is to average 12 months of data, and then the number tracks pretty close to reality.

The above chart makes it pretty clear that up to about December 2014 the monthly BLS report tended to over report jobs gains.  But since January 2015 it has been under reporting.  This can be seen by the blue and orange bars tracking pretty close in most months up to December 2014, with the orange bars periodically spiking over the blue.  But since January 2015 it the orange more typically track well below the blue.  Summing the difference between the orange and blue bars proves this as well.

Housing Bubble 2.0

Housing Bubble 2.0

This looks like housing bubble 2.0.  Looks like houses are about 20-30% overpriced vs. a 3% inflation trend line.  Not good when wage inflation is only 2%.

S&P 500 long term historical channel

The market can turn on a dime, NDX-100 Historical Chart

NDX-100 NASDAQ Index 2002 to May 2017

I'm posting this chart today because a friend of many told me that he was just starting to get aggressive in the market.  Actually in the process of rolling an annuity into something that would do better.  It struck me as classic behavior in a manic market top.  Nonsense, most would say.  Look how great the market is doing there is nothing stopping this.  Well look at the above chart.  What do you think the people were saying and doing in October 2007?  Do you think anyone that said the markets were about to crash in October 2007 were paid much heed?   But then look at November of 2007 and the following months.  It just got worse, with a single dead cat bounce.

The list of reasons why the conditions now are beginning to mimic those surrounding the housing bubble crash and dotcom crash is long.  And I plan to post on them in the future.  Virtually every line of reasoning used to dispel the bears can be easily be explained away as wrong or an outright lie.  The latest reason is that corporate earnings are up over 13% in the last year.

Here are some real numbers.  For fiscal 2016, Oct-Sept, corporate income tax payments were down 13% over 2015.  So if we are really up 13% earnings are at 2015 levels while stock prices are up 30%.  It looks like earnings have some real moving to do to justify the spike.  So let's look at a more recent period, the last 12 months.  Well that shows March 2016 to April 2107 corporate income tax payments were down 7.4% over the prior period.  And March 2015 to April 2016 were down 4% over the prior period.  It seems to me while some fancy corporate accounting was used to boost stock prices this last quarter, and others have written about this, the real trend is an accelerating decrease in corporate earnings as opposed to a sudden reversal to increasing earnings.  Maybe that is why the Schiller PE is 30.

Another recent reason for excitement was the 210k jobs supposedly added in April.  That was a giant lie as well.  With a multitude of store closings the report actually tried to claim retail jobs were up.  The underlying data set proves that was a lie/mistake.  The reality is about 175k jobs were added.  The job growth pace was about 1.45%., and in a decelerating trend  Guess what, in April 2007 the pace of job gains was about 1.25%  and decelerating.

Corporate income tax payments comparison

Monthly Comparison of Corporate Income Taxes Paid  (In $Millions)  Orange highlight indicates monthly payments lower than same period in prior year, green highlight indicates greater payment.

Note:  The trend of falling corporate income tax payments and therefore likely corporate earnings remains intact.  With only $13B paid in March, April will need to be a huge month just to catch up.  There are no precedents for such low payments in March with a massive April makeup.  We'll know more when the April report comes out in mid May, but this doesn't look good.  This looks scarily similar to what we saw in 2008.  Back then it took 12-15 months for anyone to realize just how bad things were.  Looks like a repeat, and we are over 12 months into this earning recession with a skyrocketing stock market.  LOOK OUT!!!!

Was the October Jobs Report Really as Weak as it Appeared?

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-11. xlsx

Tot Empl Chng, Seas Adj 2016-11

The October jobs report showed a top line non-farm employment gain of a weak 161k.  But how real is that number.  It certainly refutes my call of well over 200k to be reported.  I hope everyone is expecting huge job reports for October, November and December  Or does it?  Let's look closer.

First the September upward revision to the seasonally adjusted data was huge, from 156k to 191k, and the August 2nd revision up was 9k.  What this means is the September number is up 44k from what was originally reported, since you need to sum the two latest revisions, 9k+35k=44k   Looked at another way the October report showed 144.747MM jobs in September, and the latest report shows 144.791MM jobs for a difference of 44k.   So if we assume October eventually gets a big revision treatment getting the gain closer to 200k as recent trends suggest, that means 200k+44k in revisions gets very close to the 250k+ gain I predicted.  Certainly a 44k upward revision for September was huge and unexpected.

But let's dig even deeper.  Let's actually look at the revisions to the non-adjusted data set.  What we find is the August jobs total was actually adjusted DOWN 3k, while September was adjusted up a whopping 86k.  So if we take the originally reported seasonally adjusted number of 156k and add 86k, that totals 242k.  Which again lines up with my general call of very large months coming.

What does this mean for the future?  My data indicates about 288k jobs are still banked--that haven't shown up in the official seasonally adjusted reports.  However, there is a bit of a wild card.  What is unknown is how real the October number was.  If it is fairly accurate, it indicates hiring in October was very weak at only about a 186k monthly pace, down from about a 205k average the last few months.  So either the October data is foreshadowing very bad things to come, which the weekly unemployment reports are not confirming, or we can expect big numbers to come.  I expect a huge revision upward for October, and possibly a big September revision as well.  November could come in anywhere from 160k to 300k.  But the general theme will be big trailing month revisions and very good chance of a surprising November report.

I hope everyone is expecting huge job reports for October, November and December

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-10. xlsx

For awhile now I've been showing how wild the monthly BLS seasonally adjusted jobs reports are.  I've said the timing of bad reports has done a great job of holding down interest rates, and the inevitable makeup reports have done an equally good job of pumping up stocks.  The latest cases occurred this summer and fall, with good reports pumping stocks, and then bad reports tabling rate hikes until December after the election.  How convenient!

The chart above shows the official monthly job gain was very low the last two months.  So it is apparent make up reports are on the way just by looking at it.   However, some math and deeper analysis confirms this.

First some basics.  The Griz method/YOY method of seasonal adjustment, moving averages, and moving averages from the seasonally adjusted data set all point to annual job gains pace of 2.4 million or 200k/month.

I decided to look at the BLS seasonally adjusted data set a bit closer to see if there was a way to predict coming reports a little better.  So what I decided to do a 12 month summation of the reported monthly gains.  This really does the same thing as a 12 month moving average, but it provides a table that provided additional insight into how this mathematically works.  What I found is that each month, is that the sum of the most recent 12 month gains lines up relatively closely with they YoY change from the nonadjusted data set.  Makes sense.  However, the summation can vary up to +/-5% from the YoY number.  5% error is about 120k on 2.4 million, large but not so large that it is always obvious without specifically looking.  It could mean BLS reports 190k monthly gains instead of 200k.  What is also glaring is this 5% error is far less than the wild variations that take the reports into the low to mid 100k range and near 300k some months, when it is pretty clear the numbers have really been in the 200k-240k range.

So What is Coming  

Using the table of 12 month summations shown below it becomes somewhat trivial to predict the coming months reports assuming recent hiring trends remain basically intact.  At this point based on weekly jobless claims that seems to be the case.

Table of 12 Month Job Gain Summations using BLS Monthly Reported Seasonally Adjusted Gains (In 1000s of jobs)  

Data Source:  BLS

Total non farm, adj 2016-10.xlsx

Looking at the table we can see the 12 month summation for October 2016 is 2.152 million which includes 0 gains for October which hasn't been reported yet.  So if we assume the real trend is around 2.4 million like it has been for the last 5 months, that means BLS needs to report a 291k gain to get the numbers to line up exactly with reality/the Griz method/make the long term averages right.  If we factor in potential skewing and other random factors from the BLS, the likely range for October is 250k-300k.  Far above expectations with August and September reported around 160k.

Then if we apply a 291k gain for October, the expected reported gain for November should the trend hold is about 287k.  Including 287k for November then predicts a 271k reported gain for December should the trend hold.

My calculations show that currently about 300k jobs are "banked" due to under reporting in early 2016.  Analysis going into 2015 shows when this "banked" number is close to 300k, a huge report is in store.  These huge reports quickly eat into the bank.  A 300k report would reduce the bank by 80k-100k.  History also shows that as the bank comes down the likelihood of a huge report the next month drops.  So it is really hard to know whether the December report will end up being really big, but it is very likely both the October and November reports will be in the 250k-290k range.

My investment plans are to short treasuries with ETFs and with futures.  I also expect that this will trigger a massive stock correction or even crash to end 2016 and/or start 2017 when rate hikes become apparent and actually are implemented no later than December.  A November rate hike is not out of the question, but I don't think the Fed will do anything to spook markets ahead of the election.

BLS Lies to US Again, 204K Jobs Added in August

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-9. xlsx

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present with 2016 Projections:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports and my projections from June 2016 for monthly gains using the Griz Method and my expectations for the BLS reports.

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-6. xlsx

I thought there was a good chance the BLS would sandbag the August job gain number to ensure no September rate hike.  September/October is a historically terrible time for the stock market and a September rate hike certainly wouldn't help that situation.  However, I certainly wasn't expecting the number to be an anemic 151k.  But it just goes to show how hard it is to predict the magnitude and timing of a lie.

So here is some simple math to show what the real seasonal adjusted job gain was for August.  You can look at several of my earlier posts to see YoY non adjusted employment totals that show the annual employment pattern has matched for the last several years justifying simple YoY comparison.
([Aug 2106]-[Aug 2015])/12 = Seasonal Adjusted Gain for Aug 2016
Insert data from BLS not seasonally adjusted data set in thousands
(144424-141973) = 2451 thousand or 2.45 million more jobs in Aug 2016 than Aug 2015.   Divide that by 12
2451/12= 204.25 thousand monthly rate of gain

Again we see massive volatility and variability in the BLS seasonally adjusted number which is intended to remove variability.  But if we look at the data created with the Griz/YoY Method the resulting data is a smooth transition with little volatility.  If we compare my predictions from early June vs. the actual not seasonally adjusted jobs total/Griz Method job gains you get the following comparison.

	Griz Projected	Actual	Error %
June	200	207	-3.30%
July	200	202	-1.07%
August	195	204	-4.53%
Total	595	613.25	-2.98%

Notice my bearish/very conservative estimate for jobs gains made in early June have varied only 4.5% at worst from the actual reported total for the month.  And the worst error is in August, if the recent pattern repeats, August was overestimated and will be adjusted downwards in the coming 2 months.  Still the total error over 3 months is less than 3% in magnitude and will likely improve as adjustments come in.  3% error on a 3 month projection which constituted the absolute low bound is pretty good.  If a high, low and average of the range was predicted for each month you can see that the average would have almost no error from the actual reported data.  

So here is my question?   Why does the BLS monthly report swing so wildly?  Very conveniently it seems to have no guaranteed no stock market killing rate hikes until post election in December or possibly just 2 business days ahead of the election in the first week of November not leaving the markets enough time to crash and potentially derail Democrats chances in the election, given they are running on the strength of the economy.  A crashing stock and bond market doesn't exactly instill confidence in voters.

Also note:  An actual 151k monthly job gain rate is pretty ugly.  Indeed early in the year similar reports did a great job of capping stock market gains and pushed bonds up.  However, today this report is pushing up risky stocks and has treasury rates heading higher, signs of a strengthening economy/market, not one of weakness indicated greatly slowing employment gains.

Prediction:

My data shows about 244k jobs are now "banked" since January 2016 that will be used to over report monthly gains in the next few months.  The reality is job gains are about 200k/month so that means for September, October, November and December the average reported monthly gain is likely to be about  261k-265k.  If they decide to actually spread it out into January or even February, the average "reported" monthly gain for the next 9 months will be about 240k.

BAN Copay Coupons for Drugs NOW!!!

Copay coupons like the ones Mylan offers for EpiPens allows drug companies to use consumers as tools to push insurance companies and therefore consumers to overpay for drugs.  The copay coupon means an insured consumer often pays less "out of pocket" for the more expensive drug.

In the case of EpiPen which sell for $600, in some cases more, the consumer with an insurance plan that only requires copays for drugs or a consumer that has already met a deductible pays zero out of pocket if they have a copay coupon dumping a $500 bill on the insurance company.  Instead of purchasing the $144 generic available at Walmart.
Walmart/GoodRx Adrenaclick $144.62
Lifehacker--Adrenaclick
Of course while consumers think they are tricking the insurance company, we are really tricking themselves since the insurance company just passes the extra cost back to us in higher premiums.

When Massachusetts dropped the ban on copay coupons they were warned that it would cost Massachusetts consumers $100s of millions or even billions in higher drug costs and insurance premiums.  By the looks of how fast drug costs and insurance premiums are rising, those estimates may be low.  Of course that only covers one small state.  Imagine how much this costs when the entire country is included since Massachusetts is only 2% of the population.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/repealing-brand-drug-copay-coupons-ban-increases-costs-by-750-million-for-massachusetts-employers-unions-and-state-employee-health-programs-159043445.html

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/08/drug-co-pay-assistance-programs-facing-increasing-state-federal-scrutiny/85547788/

I intend to create a list of drugs where the copay coupon has created severe artificial imbalances in the free market.  Inflating prices while giving unfairly large market share to the most expensive options.  If anyone knows of examples leave a comment.

OPEC has some Major Problems if they cap production, US and Canadian Producers will eat their lunch

US crude oil is clearly rising again and this doesn't bode well for any move by OPEC, Russia, et.al. to cap or cut production.  It is pretty clear now that the situation for North American producers has drastically changed.  Any price support, especially any surge close to WTI $50 will result in rapid US and Canadian production increases.  It is also pretty clear that while most--including me--expected a major decline in US production towards a level well below 9MM BPD, it is now clear that 9MM BPD is the floor and US production is rising again along with working oil rig counts.  

There is a clear surge in unaccounted for oil dating back to June.  A surge in unaccounted for oil, especially a sustained one is a leading indicator that US production is rising, even though the official production number continued to show decline.  However, the official production number showed a huge 100k BPD increase last week.

US Production and Unaccounted for Oil

Data Source:  EIA

psw01 2016-8-17

Not only is US production rising, but it appears Canadian production is surging as well with US imports from Canada surging over 3.3MM BPD last week.  Comparing to last year, Canadian imports surged well over 3.3MM BPD in late 2015 and early 2016 in the face of  oil in the low $40s and $30s.  I expect more of the same this fall and winter.

Canadian Crude Exports to the US

Data Source:  EIA

psw08 2016-4-27

Those betting on a sustained rally in prices today are in for a surprise as we are heading into fall maintenance refinery maintenance season with a corresponding huge slump in demand just as US and Canadian output is surging.  That can't be good for prices.

Glowing June and July BLS Non-Farm Job Reports are Totally Bogus, More to Come

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-8. xlsx

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present with 2016 Projections:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports and my projections from June 2016 for monthly gains using the Griz Method and my expectations for the BLS reports.

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-8. xlsx

Even though I knew this months great jobs report "surprise" was coming, it still amazes me to watch this unfold right in front of my eyes.  In early June I correctly predicted huge "surprises" to come in the monthly jobs reports.  I Hope Everyone is Expecting Huge Gains in the Non-Farms Job Report in July, August and September  just as I did in November, 2015.    Huge October Jobs Report Coming  I also found it interesting that the experts didn't see this coming, although I've seen at least one quoted saying the real job gain number is 150k-200k per month.  Well it looks like the truth hides in plain sight.

I've shown the most recent BLS reported monthly job gains along with the gains calculated with my methods with the chart of what I predicted in June was coming.  It is really scary just how close my projections have been for both the BLS report and my estimates of what the Griz method would show in coming months.  It is clear to see I projected that gains would follow the lower trend line as shown in the lower chart, which has now been confirmed by 2 months of reports as shown in the upper chart.  I expect this will continue to year end.

I also projected that huge reports were in store, although I thought it was possible the really big numbers would be delayed to later in the year.  What is clear is I saw the big numbers coming.

It is also clear US stocks have broken out to the upside since the June report and are getting another bullish push today.  While the very bearish reports early this year helped inflate US treasuries which are getting knocked down since June with only the Brexit scare driving them up.  Treasuries are getting hit again today and I expect they will continue to get driven down as rate hike talk gets serious again driven by month after month of great job reports.

I also find it quite "convenient" that now that Hillary is pushing a story of how great things are, that the jobs numbers suddenly went from miserable to start the year, to totally amazing the last 2 months.  That when my analysis clearly shows job growth rates are in decline and have been for most of a year.  My analysis shows the early part of the year was much stronger than the last few months, yet the BLS seasonal adjustment is showing that the last 2 months have been the strongest of the year, rivaling the fastest growth we have seen in 2 years.