Glowing June and July BLS Non-Farm Job Reports are Totally Bogus, More to Come

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-8. xlsx

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present with 2016 Projections:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports and my projections from June 2016 for monthly gains using the Griz Method and my expectations for the BLS reports.

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-8. xlsx

Even though I knew this months great jobs report "surprise" was coming, it still amazes me to watch this unfold right in front of my eyes.  In early June I correctly predicted huge "surprises" to come in the monthly jobs reports.  I Hope Everyone is Expecting Huge Gains in the Non-Farms Job Report in July, August and September  just as I did in November, 2015.    Huge October Jobs Report Coming  I also found it interesting that the experts didn't see this coming, although I've seen at least one quoted saying the real job gain number is 150k-200k per month.  Well it looks like the truth hides in plain sight.

I've shown the most recent BLS reported monthly job gains along with the gains calculated with my methods with the chart of what I predicted in June was coming.  It is really scary just how close my projections have been for both the BLS report and my estimates of what the Griz method would show in coming months.  It is clear to see I projected that gains would follow the lower trend line as shown in the lower chart, which has now been confirmed by 2 months of reports as shown in the upper chart.  I expect this will continue to year end.

I also projected that huge reports were in store, although I thought it was possible the really big numbers would be delayed to later in the year.  What is clear is I saw the big numbers coming.

It is also clear US stocks have broken out to the upside since the June report and are getting another bullish push today.  While the very bearish reports early this year helped inflate US treasuries which are getting knocked down since June with only the Brexit scare driving them up.  Treasuries are getting hit again today and I expect they will continue to get driven down as rate hike talk gets serious again driven by month after month of great job reports.

I also find it quite "convenient" that now that Hillary is pushing a story of how great things are, that the jobs numbers suddenly went from miserable to start the year, to totally amazing the last 2 months.  That when my analysis clearly shows job growth rates are in decline and have been for most of a year.  My analysis shows the early part of the year was much stronger than the last few months, yet the BLS seasonal adjustment is showing that the last 2 months have been the strongest of the year, rivaling the fastest growth we have seen in 2 years.