I Hope Everyone is Expecting Huge Gains in the Non-Farms Job Report in July, August and September

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-6. xlsx

I hope everyone is expecting huge non-farm jobs gains the next 2-3 months.  The chart above clearly shows jobs gains have been understated the last 3 months.  History shows when this happens in the following months huge gains are reported bringing the moving average into balance.

The Griz Seasonal Adjustment uses a simple YoY monthly comparison since employment totals have been in a consistent uptrend for years which can be seen in the charts in these earlier posts.
http://griztrading.blogspot.com/2015/11/i-hope-everyone-is-expecting-big-job.html
http://griztrading.blogspot.com/2015/11/2015-us-employment-trend-almost.html

The Griz Method clearly shows a downtrend in the growth rate of employment, but not a downtrend in total employment which would be indicated by negative job changes/monthly seasonally adjusted job losses.  However, it is also clear the BLS seasonally adjusted gain/loss varies wildly.  The intent of seasonal adjustment is to smooth out variability caused by seasonal trends such as mass end of year retirements and layoffs, end of school year, etc.  It is curious that the monthly BLS reported job gain/loss still varies wildly even when a simple YoY provides quite smooth data as shown when moving averages are added.  One can see that the 2 month moving average for the Griz Method Data (blue dotted line) tracks the actual reported data quite closely.  However, the 2 month average on the BLS monthly report (dotted orange line) varies wildly.  But the much slower 12 month moving average on the BLS monthly report (orange dashed line) merges quite closely with the dotted blue line created with the Griz Method reported data.  The fact that the long term moving average on the BLS data set aligns with the faster moving average created using data from the Griz Method proves the validity of the Griz Method/Simple YoY comparison.

So is the BLS really this incompetent that monthly reports are published which are essentially meaningless on a consistent basis?  And/or does this allow for manipulation of the numbers in attempt to create desired affects in the markets, Fed actions and possibly even elections.  If my prediction proves true, and I firmly believe it will, it is highly suspicious that ultra weak data is reported as the Fed is getting serious about rate hikes which have been proven in the last couple of years to seriously correct stock markets.  What adds to the suspicion is the jobs reports in the several months just ahead of the election when the campaigning between parties is in full swing look to be extremely strong make up reports for several months of extremely weak data.  Does anyone believe a June rate hike and another say in September wouldn't have had a serious negative affect on markets just as they did in January and that negative reaction would NOT have been a very negative factor for the incumbent Democrats.

What makes this so very scary is that the over-reports hide the true trend as can be seen in the Oct. 2015 to Dec. 2015 time period.  While more recent data has clearly proven that hiring rates were continuing to slow, 3 months of strong monthly BLS reports were clearly sending the opposite message.  In fact stocks rallied exceptionally strongly in November 2015 partially driven by strong jobs reports, only to have those buyers of stocks get heavily punished in January 2016 after a December 2015 rate hike and a "surprisingly" weak jobs report to open the month of January.

To me this looks like a clear attempt to get markets to heavily correct or stall this summer so that they can rally strongly in the fall on strong jobs reports creating a perfect story for the Democrats to brag about how great the economy is, when the truth may end up being 180 degrees opposite.  I won't be surprised with gains in the next few months topping 250k/month and possibly very close to 300k/month in 1 or 2 months.

Update:  Accumulated error over the last 5 months is -343k jobs, meaning if the real jobs gain is around 200k, then the BLS reported number can be exaggerated up to about 250k/month for the next 7 months just to balance it out, or up to 270k/month for 5 months.  How would that look for July, August, September, October and November just ahead of the election?

For giggles, I added a prediction of what the jobs numbers reports will look like into year end.