BAN Copay Coupons for Drugs NOW!!!

Copay coupons like the ones Mylan offers for EpiPens allows drug companies to use consumers as tools to push insurance companies and therefore consumers to overpay for drugs.  The copay coupon means an insured consumer often pays less "out of pocket" for the more expensive drug.

In the case of EpiPen which sell for $600, in some cases more, the consumer with an insurance plan that only requires copays for drugs or a consumer that has already met a deductible pays zero out of pocket if they have a copay coupon dumping a $500 bill on the insurance company.  Instead of purchasing the $144 generic available at Walmart.
Walmart/GoodRx Adrenaclick $144.62
Lifehacker--Adrenaclick
Of course while consumers think they are tricking the insurance company, we are really tricking themselves since the insurance company just passes the extra cost back to us in higher premiums.

When Massachusetts dropped the ban on copay coupons they were warned that it would cost Massachusetts consumers $100s of millions or even billions in higher drug costs and insurance premiums.  By the looks of how fast drug costs and insurance premiums are rising, those estimates may be low.  Of course that only covers one small state.  Imagine how much this costs when the entire country is included since Massachusetts is only 2% of the population.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/repealing-brand-drug-copay-coupons-ban-increases-costs-by-750-million-for-massachusetts-employers-unions-and-state-employee-health-programs-159043445.html

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/08/drug-co-pay-assistance-programs-facing-increasing-state-federal-scrutiny/85547788/

I intend to create a list of drugs where the copay coupon has created severe artificial imbalances in the free market.  Inflating prices while giving unfairly large market share to the most expensive options.  If anyone knows of examples leave a comment.

OPEC has some Major Problems if they cap production, US and Canadian Producers will eat their lunch

US crude oil is clearly rising again and this doesn't bode well for any move by OPEC, Russia, et.al. to cap or cut production.  It is pretty clear now that the situation for North American producers has drastically changed.  Any price support, especially any surge close to WTI $50 will result in rapid US and Canadian production increases.  It is also pretty clear that while most--including me--expected a major decline in US production towards a level well below 9MM BPD, it is now clear that 9MM BPD is the floor and US production is rising again along with working oil rig counts.  

There is a clear surge in unaccounted for oil dating back to June.  A surge in unaccounted for oil, especially a sustained one is a leading indicator that US production is rising, even though the official production number continued to show decline.  However, the official production number showed a huge 100k BPD increase last week.

US Production and Unaccounted for Oil

Data Source:  EIA

psw01 2016-8-17

Not only is US production rising, but it appears Canadian production is surging as well with US imports from Canada surging over 3.3MM BPD last week.  Comparing to last year, Canadian imports surged well over 3.3MM BPD in late 2015 and early 2016 in the face of  oil in the low $40s and $30s.  I expect more of the same this fall and winter.

Canadian Crude Exports to the US

Data Source:  EIA

psw08 2016-4-27

Those betting on a sustained rally in prices today are in for a surprise as we are heading into fall maintenance refinery maintenance season with a corresponding huge slump in demand just as US and Canadian output is surging.  That can't be good for prices.

Glowing June and July BLS Non-Farm Job Reports are Totally Bogus, More to Come

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-8. xlsx

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Jobs Change 2013-Present with 2016 Projections:  Comparison between Griz Method/Simple YoY and BLS Monthly Reports and my projections from June 2016 for monthly gains using the Griz Method and my expectations for the BLS reports.

Source Data:  BLS

Total Nonfarm 2016-8. xlsx

Even though I knew this months great jobs report "surprise" was coming, it still amazes me to watch this unfold right in front of my eyes.  In early June I correctly predicted huge "surprises" to come in the monthly jobs reports.  I Hope Everyone is Expecting Huge Gains in the Non-Farms Job Report in July, August and September  just as I did in November, 2015.    Huge October Jobs Report Coming  I also found it interesting that the experts didn't see this coming, although I've seen at least one quoted saying the real job gain number is 150k-200k per month.  Well it looks like the truth hides in plain sight.

I've shown the most recent BLS reported monthly job gains along with the gains calculated with my methods with the chart of what I predicted in June was coming.  It is really scary just how close my projections have been for both the BLS report and my estimates of what the Griz method would show in coming months.  It is clear to see I projected that gains would follow the lower trend line as shown in the lower chart, which has now been confirmed by 2 months of reports as shown in the upper chart.  I expect this will continue to year end.

I also projected that huge reports were in store, although I thought it was possible the really big numbers would be delayed to later in the year.  What is clear is I saw the big numbers coming.

It is also clear US stocks have broken out to the upside since the June report and are getting another bullish push today.  While the very bearish reports early this year helped inflate US treasuries which are getting knocked down since June with only the Brexit scare driving them up.  Treasuries are getting hit again today and I expect they will continue to get driven down as rate hike talk gets serious again driven by month after month of great job reports.

I also find it quite "convenient" that now that Hillary is pushing a story of how great things are, that the jobs numbers suddenly went from miserable to start the year, to totally amazing the last 2 months.  That when my analysis clearly shows job growth rates are in decline and have been for most of a year.  My analysis shows the early part of the year was much stronger than the last few months, yet the BLS seasonal adjustment is showing that the last 2 months have been the strongest of the year, rivaling the fastest growth we have seen in 2 years.