psw01 2016-2-18
It appears there was a very good reason refineries were ramped up 2 weeks ago, gasoline demand was huge this past week. For all the talk of weak demand even for gasoline, the numbers just don't support that story for gasoline. Gasoline demand appears to be surging in recent weeks. Year to Date gasoline demand is up 1.3% YoY but if we eliminate the first week of the year that was likely down excessively due to covering both the Christmas and New Years holidays, gasoline demand is up 2.6% YoY.
psw01 2016-1-3
The above chart shows refinery inputs are up significantly YoY as well. The data indicates refinery inputs are up 2.6% for the YTD period vs. the same 2015 period. If global demand is weak, US refineries sure aren't indicating that is the case.
psw01 2016-1-13
In recent weeks total petroleum supplied has been surging putting it back in line with 2015 demand. The next several weeks of 2015 showed a noticeable drop off in demand, it will be interesting to see if the same thing happens in 2016 or if demand actually remains, much stronger, especially with prices as low as they are. It is also becoming apparent that US production is falling, it is known that Canadian tar sands will soon be in seasonal maintenance, and OPEC/Russia is talking like they want to cap production/put a floor under prices. This could mean current price levels are as good as they are going to get and it could spur demand in the next several weeks. This is a dramatically different supply situation than this time 2015, since US production was still surging and tar sands didn't go into maintenance until summer.
My conclusion is it looks like it's time to by some gasoline and some refiners and probably crude as well.
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