January 2016 150k NonFarm Jobs Gains is Totally Bogus

Total non farm 2016-2.xlsx

Looks like the BLS pulled a repeat of the March 2015 jobs report.  I really don't understand how these guys can continuously botch the seasonal adjust of the employment data like they do.  First in January they report 292k jobs gained which was totally bogus to the high side.  Basic YoY comparisons for Dec 2015 vs Dec 2014 showed a 232k gain which is in line with the same comparison for the previous several months.  Then it appears BLS immediately made up for the error in the January 2016 report by revising December down to 262k but putting January at 150k.  The 150k number totally freaks out the markets when the average has been running around 220k for the year.

What is the January number really.  YoY shows it to be 217k, which on its surface looks terrible considering 2015 job gains averaged 242k/month which would constitute a 10% drop in a month.  However, one must also consider December 2014 and January 2015 were blowout employment months with each month showing the best gains for their respective years at 252k or about 2.2% annual rate for the months.  Job gains have been trending down slightly throughout 2015 with the year starting with a 2.2% annual growth rate and ending at 2%.  But January 2016 coming in at 1.9% growth when compared to a previous years blowout month is not that alarming.

However if you do further correction for the blowout January 2015 be using January 2013 data one comes up with a 234k gain for January 2016 which is in line with the appx. 232k monthly gains in previous months.

In the end we have a government agency that one months puts out 292k when 232k is more real a 25.9% error, which they already corrected by 10 percentage points, and then they follow it up with 150k when again 232k is more real a -35% error.  

Below a 3 year non farms employment chart shows the seasonal employment levels channel.  January is always the low point due to end of the year retirements, seasonal retail layoffs and corporate end of year house cleaning.  It is clear January 2016 is directly in line with the previous January employment levels.

Total non farm 2016-2.xlsx