Thursday, January 11, 2018

Where are the corporate income tax payments?

Corporate income tax payments comparison, Where are the Corporate Income Tax Payments



Monthly Comparison of Corporate Income Taxes Paid  (In $Millions)  Orange highlight indicates monthly payments lower than same period in prior year, green highlight indicates greater payment.


For most of 2017 we were told both from the financial media and corporate quarterly earnings reports that US corporations were having a blowout earnings year.  Earnings were supposedly up well over 10% year over year.  Well if that was the case, Where are the corporate income tax payments to match?  

It's pretty clear now no matter how it's sliced, fiscal YoY or calendar YoY, corporate income tax payments were down which implies earnings were as well.  I actually expect January payments to be down as well, and may even show an overall refund.  Why?  Because with the corporate tax cut, companies will do everything possible to push earnings into 2018 instead of 2017 to take advantage of the lower tax rate.  I suspect a lot of the bonuses paid in December were done in an effort to pull 2018 wage expense into 2017 and a there will be matching delays/lowering of raises for 2018 using the bonus as a justification.

We all better hope that the corporate tax cut works and/or the soft income tax payments were simply due to financial engineering by companies that were betting on the tax cut happening.  If not with this sky high stock market, and central banks unwinding their balance sheets, LOOK OUT because stops could IMPLODE!!!!

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