Thursday, January 25, 2018

How to know you are in a market bubble 101

Car Companies
Ford
Revenue:  $160B
Earnings:  $6.24B
PE 7.3
Value:  $45.5B and falling fast

GM
Revenue:  $160B
Earnings:  $8.86B
PE 6.98
Value:  $61.8B and falling fast

Tesla
Revenue: < $12B
Earnings:  lost $300 million
PE:  Not applicable, no profit
Value:  $58.4B and rising

So Tesla is treated like it is already equivalent to Ford or GM.

Netflix
Revenue: <$13B
Earnings:  $500 million
PE:  200
Value:  $117B and rising fast

And why own Ford AND GM combined and make $15B when you can own Netflix instead and make 1/30 as much.  Anyone see a problem with the market rushing to buy Netflix and dumping Ford and GM.

Retailers/Distributors
Walmart
Revenue: $485B
Earnings:  $17B
PE:  28
Value:  $318B and rising
Umm, the largest grocery/low end retail store in the world now has a PE of 28.  20 years to break even.  Yah, that ends well.

Target
Revenue: $70B
Earnings:  $2.5B
PE:  16
Value:  $41.3B and rising
Umm, the largest grocery/low end retail store in the world now has a PE of 28.  20 years to break even.  Yah, that ends well.

Macys
Revenue: $26B
Earnings:  $619 million
PE:  12
Value:  $8.1B and falling

Amazon
Revenue: $100B
Earnings:  <$2B
PE:  342
Value:  $660B and rising fast

So you can buy both Target and Macy's and make $1 billion more than Amazon, but instead everyone wants to buy Amazon for 7X as much.  And why buy Walmart for 2/3 the cost of Amazon and make $17B when you can have Amazon instead and make less the $2B.


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