Russians the Lynch Pin in OPEC/Non-OPEC Production Freeze

This week the Russians have started talking about $45-$50 being an acceptable price for crude.  They urgently need higher prices.  The Russians are also contracted to help Iran boost their production by providing rigs and other work on their infrastructure.  Iran has said they plan to boost their output in cooperation with other producers.  i.e.  Others cut and Iran will increase.

In the $30s many Russian wells do not cover cash costs to produce, much less actually turn a profit.  Russia cannot subsidize their government/economy by just meeting cash costs they need a profit.  Therefore they are highly motivated to boost prices.

The Russians could easily allow their expensive wells to naturally decline at about 5%/year and not drill replacements.  This is what they will be forced to do anyway if no agreement is reached April 17 since prices will crater back below $30.  So one part of any compromise can be that Russia cuts production by 1-3%/year, which would be a cut of 120-360k BPD by year end starting now.  Iran would then agree to limit their production increases to not exceed what Russia is cutting.  They could also be encouraged to delay increases for a few months to accelerate a market balance.

Other countries may not be adverse to making a very small cut as well to accelerate this balance.  Many of these countries have boosted their volume in recent years, and they all know that with the US cutting production in a major way, only a very small commitment on their part is needed to solidify a deal to support prices.  In the end even the Saudis can save face by not cutting.  In reality the Saudis may unofficially cut, because they have been pumping at such a high rate recently that they are potentially damaging the long term output of their wells by overproducing.