Oil Traders Mindset Needs to Change on US Production Strength

I just saw a recent article where an author or analyst stated that US production for the week of Feb 26 was down 2.6% over the same week a year ago.  Why do so many in the mainstream media continue to downplay the drop in US production and have really been playing it up as being "strong", "robust" and "resilient".  Stating the efficiency improvements and cost reductions have made this possible.  While ignoring various other metrics that clearly show US production is falling fast and is far weaker than is being reported.

The table below clearly shows multiple data points that can be used to show a much more dramatic fall in production and more clearly show what is really happening.  The biggest story is the one told when Unaccounted for Oil is factored in.  Using unaccounted for oil it appears US production is 10% off peak, and when you look at the trend since Dec 4 it is falling off a cliff.  In fact I found an article on Bloomberg indicating that the global glut has been grossly overestimated and the inventory numbers show a much lower oversupply.   Another analyst was quoted in a Reuters article stating US production is falling much faster than most realize.

Oil Traders Mindset Needs to Change
EIA Overestimates US Production in Weekly Reports

US Production Change for Various Time Windows and Data Sets

	Then	Now	% Change
2/27/2015, Weekly Data	9324	9077	-2.65%
6/5/2015, Weekly Data	9610	9077	-5.55%
1/15/2016, Weekly Data	9235	9077	-1.71%
Sept 2015, Monthly Data	9452	9077	-3.97%
April 2015, Monthly Data	9694	9077	-6.36%
7/17/2015, Prod + Unacc for Oil, 4 week averages	9843	8881	-9.77%