No Signs of Shale Turnaround Yet

Data Source:  RRC of Texas

EIA Monthly Crude Prod.xlsx

Some are beginning to wonder if shale producers will soon bring on more rigs and increase production with WTI near $50.  They're not.  http://griztrading.blogspot.com/2016/03/wti-above-60-will-drive-rig-increase.html  And well completion rates in Texas and North Dakota support this theory.

The first thing one would expect producers to do to take advantage of rising prices is increase the frack/well completion rate.  This would show up before an increase in drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.  The data clearly shows sudden surges in monthly frack count without a surge in rigs, even a falling rig count.  Sudden spikes in completions can be seen in April and July 2015 with rig counts falling or flat.

Currently Texas oil well completions remain flat through April.   In fact from March to April the completion count fell in the face of rising prices and a typically strong summer price season just ahead.  More troubling is the outsized number of re-completions that occurred in April.  171 of 873 total completions were re-completions compared to 70 re-completions per month in other recent months.  Even 2015 averaged less than 100 re-completions per month even though total completions were at a 50% higher rate.