Thursday, February 18, 2016

EIA Overestimates US Production, Huge Production Drop in the Works #5

The EIA weekly estimate of production is still too high as indicated by Unaccounted for Oil and production estimates based on well completion rates.  However, the weekly estimate is starting to move down in a big way.  Last week down 30k bbl/day, this week 50k bbl/day.  50k bbl/day is huge, that is 200k bbl/day/month  The reality is US production has been falling 20k-30k bbl/day for weeks or even months already, now it is likely falling 30-37k bbl/day/week not 50k bbl/day/week.  50k bbl/day/week would imply almost zero well completions, when around half of each months shale decline is currently being replaced monthly.  But EIA is so far behind, with likely production levels already below 9 MM bbl/day compared to the official estimate of 9.135 MM bbl/day, that they are being forced and will continue to be forced to show huge weekly declines for awhile to catch up.  Won't be surprised to see 100k bbl/day cut reported next week and potentially the week after as well.

Unaccounted for oil has been running dramatically negative since Dec. 4.  We have now just seen 3 back to back weeks with negative unaccounted for oil.  This week it was -500k bbl/day or 3.5MM bbl for the week.  Imagine what happens when -500k bbl/day in Unaccounted is zeroed out and put in production instead.

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