Here is a chart showing the largest 4 WTI crude oil traders net position using my metric vs price. You can see they are much longer (bullish) than they have been since this time last year. Just this week the largest traders added 10% to their long positions, about 27,000 contracts while paring back their short positions by about 7%, 12,600 contracts.
So if you want to bet crude oil prices will drop a lot more, this is what you are against. And week by week they get more and more bullish. You can see multiple times in the last year, where the biggest traders became bullish and price followed their lead up.
So that's it? After a flurry of posts you fold up shop and go home because of a few bad predictions? Come on man if you are going to have any future in this game you need to learn to acknowledge (publicly) your mistakes if that's where you made the pronostications, make the adjustments and move on. We all make bad calls. With experience in different kinds of markets you will make fewer and fewer mistakes. Your short term trading strategy isn't bad. If I were you I would stay away from trying to predict the long term direction of things until you seen a few more cycles.
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