What I was looking for was a leading indicator.  I found that in the swap dealers, the yellow line.  This means the indicator needs to move opposite of price and reach an extreme indicating a reversal in price is imminent.  Reversal of the indicator confirms the price move is real.

Some would ask why not just follow the managed money, the gray line.  That is because it slightly lags price and more or less follows price.  When the amount of bullish managed money flattened out at the top this past summer, it was an indicator that a reversal was possible as well,

Note the late August peak in Swap Dealer bullishness has been surpassed.  This was likely caused when price surged passed $50 and producers opened a lot of hedges.  Total short positions for both the Producer/Merchant/Processor and Swap Dealer groups surged.  This has also led to an increase in US Production+Unaccounted for Oil.  I'd like to see the total short positions for the physical and swap dealer groups drop back to the levels that were seen on the March and August spikes.  Until then I will be somewhat nervous that $42.50 could break, retesting $37.75.  But history indicates that if price stays in the low $40s and certainly if it moves below $40, we will see a massive falloff in US Production+Unaccounted.

Mid summer produced a 5% production+Unaccounted drop as producers hedges expired.  It is my belief we will see a repeat as the latest block of producer hedges expire.